The Universe – Value Opportunities
• 1000 – Total universe of top 1000 market capitalization companies
• 804 – Companies having greater than 30% promoter shareholding
• 536 – Rank companies based on ROE and 1/PER (Earnings Yield). Add the two parameters to arrive at a combined rank. Identify the top 2/3rd of this combination to arrive at stocks likely to perform best
• 421 – Capital Efficiency i.e. ROE of at least 15% trending toward and higher than 20%
• 227 – Compounded PAT Growth of at least 10% in the last three years
• 50 – Assess companies based on Management quality, Integrity, Balance Sheet strength, Capital Allocation, Execution Capabilities, Vision for the business, fairness to stakeholders, etc
• 12-18 – Valuation not more expensive than peer set and Price to Value Gap of at least 30%
Fundamental Analysis Process
Management
• Is management trustworthy and rational
• Is it candid with its shareholders
Return ratios
• Is ROCE/ROE stable over the last few years? Why?
• Expectation of ROCE/ ROE going forward
• Expansion or contraction because of – a) Asset turns, b) Margin changes or, c) Leverage
Capital Allocation
• Asset turn
• Assets tied up in non-core businesses
• Revenues from core activities
Earning Power
• Revenue growth expectation
• Expense trend (as % of sales)
• Margin trend
• What are the company’s owner earnings i.e. the FCF
Valuation
• EV/EBITDA, PER, FCF Yield, P/B, Replacement Cost
• Comparison with other players within sector and benchmark indices
• Can the business be bought in the market at a discount to current market value
What are Special Situations?
Investment operations whose results are dependent on happening or not happening of one or more corporate events rather than market events
Key Advantages – Investment results of Special Situations opportunities are largely independent of market moves
Key variants
• Price related – Securities bought at a discount to (expected) price guarantees by buyer in the form of de-listings, buy-backs, open offers, etc.
• Merger related – Shares can be created at a discount to current market price
• Corporate restructurings – Value unlocking due to corporate restructuring, assets sales, demergers, business triggers, etc.