Correction v/s Opportunity

Dear Investors,

While markets made all-time highs, those companies that benefited from government spending significantly outperformed the major indices. Many pockets in the markets have moved extremely fast, especially in the mid & small cap space owing to investors’ FOMO. This has lately led to numerous warnings from AMFI, economists, regulators, fund managers, and many other market participants.

Does this mean it’s time to exit?

The fear of a correction in the short term is valid, as some pockets of the market are in the incorrect zone owing to froth. But the best way to ride such fear & uncertainty is not exiting, but keeping greed aside and investing gradually with patience on dips. This is because we see the present scenarios as half glass full and not half glass empty and feel any short-term correction is an opportunity to invest for the long term as seeing from an optimistic lens, the Indian economy presents an environment where opportunities look highly promising over the long term.

Macro-economic indicators are strong, with almost all parameters showing strength and improvement. Elections due in May 2024 are likely to be in line with expectations. Globally, inflation has stabilized, and interest rates have peaked.

India’s growth opportunity, strong macros, and resilience could continue to attract foreign investors in FY 2024-25, after FIIs pumped in a net of $25.43 billion into Indian equities in the last financial year. This comes a year after the net outflow of about $8 billion in the previous fiscal year 2022-23.

Microeconomic indicators like corporate profits also continue to be strong. There is an expectation of 15-20% earnings growth over the next years. Additionally, the Q3 GDP numbers surprised everyone with an 8.4% growth rate. The government has been doing aggressive capex spending and carries the launchpad for strong growth policies in the third term. The inclusion of Indian government bonds in global indices, expected to prompt a $50 billion purchase, signifies a pivotal shift in the financial sector, reducing costs for both the government and businesses.

On the valuations front, markets seem a little near expensive right now, where Nifty 50 PE (on a trailing basis) stands at around 24, the Nifty Mid Cap 100 PE is around 34, and the Nifty Small Cap 100 PE is around 28. But despite valuations being little high, it is very interesting as earnings growth is also high.

The success in this journey is not dependent just on intellect but also on discipline, character, as well as temperament.

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